Looking ahead to the rest of President Donald Trump’s final term in office is a challenge when there are still three years left. However, interviews with active and former Illinois Republicans give a glimpse into the party’s attitude toward the future in Illinois and overall.
Trump’s political support as head of the Republican Party, while shifting at times, has remained consistent, leading to a nonconsecutive election for his second term. With nearly a decade of support nationally, but not so successful at making an impact in the Illinois legislature, the future of Illinois’ Republicans is much different here than on the national stage.
In previous conversations with political experts like UIS emeritus professor Kent Redfield and Illinois Republicans like former leader Don Tracy, there is a consensus that the gerrymandered legislative district lines within the state heavily contribute to the uneven distribution of political power. However, in the case of politics, power begets power. When an incumbent is in control, it makes it easier to remain in power, according to Redfield.
“If I were Democrat, I would never agree to [independent map drawing] unless it’s on a national basis,” said Tracy. “What the Democrats have done to us in Illinois, we Republicans are doing to Democrats in other states where we have control. I’ve heard the Democrats make that argument, calling it unilateral disarmament, and I’m sympathetic to that.”
This interparty conflict through Democratic majority influence is a sizable contributor to the lack of impact Republicans have made in the northern suburbs and cities. Another factor is the infighting between Republicans and a lack of diverse political views inside the party. Tracy says a “big tent” mentality, lacking now, is what Illinois Republicans need to make a greater impact in the state and gain more votes.
“Big tent includes all Republicans, not just Republicans that are on the most conservative side,” said Tracy. “What some people would call a Republican, what some people would call never-Trump Republicans, it needs to include independents and those soft-camps that only sometimes vote Republican…. My most important thing is to remember that just because someone disagrees with you on an issue, that doesn’t make them a non-Republican.”
Redfield agreed that Republicans, if they want to make an impact in the northern districts, need to foster a more diverse party. He also says if Illinois Republicans want to be more appealing to independents and liberals, they need to be aligned more with the economically conservative values of older Republicans rather than specific, socially conservative issues.
“You can’t win statewide with just downstate conservative votes,” said Redfield. “You can run against the Republicans and be the lesser of two evils for a suburban voter, but it’s much better to look at how can you build the Republican Party that has some ideological coherence. One that doesn’t make it impossible to build bridges to the people that used to be supportive of Illinois Republicans.”
Redfield also says more specific conservative talking points – like fetal personhood or right to work – are issues that push some voters toward the Democratic side. He says trade unions, which are among the most powerful political forces in the state, are moderate to socially conservative. However, he says they’re going to side with the Democrats because they’re afraid of what the Republicans might do if they were to achieve majorities which allow them to make labor policy.
Representative Travis Weaver, a Republican from District 93 northeast of Peoria, partially disagrees with the idea that Illinois Republicans are moving collectively toward social conservatism. While he says Republicans are in the place they have always been, he doesn’t deny there are areas where social conservatism is on the rise.
Weaver, representing the more “big tent” conservative crowd, says he is more focused on issues which impact Illinois and its residents rather than “fringe issues” as he puts it, like the “Department of Government Efficiency,” or illegal immigrants in MS-13 gangs.
“Those [fringe issues] are really big parts of the conversation that don’t have anything to really do with what’s going on here in Illinois,” said Weaver. “Certainly, some Illinoisans might be impacted by them, but our state legislature has no real control over those issues. A lot of these fringe issues take our eye off the ball. I’m trying to remind people we have problems right here in Illinois.”
Focusing on issues within Illinois, rather than on a national level, is what Weaver believes to be the best use of Republican energy and time. When it comes to the major issue of independent district mapping within Illinois, he is a strong supporter.
“I’m confident that we can get a fair map initiative done because common-sense people know it. It doesn’t matter if they’re Republican, Democrat, Independent, you name it,” said Weaver. “People are proud to have a democracy in America and part of that means that you’ve got a fair map.”